Edit: This was written a few hours before Jon Gruden resigned as Raiders head coach but I don’t care, I still think the Chiefs miss playoffs
We’re just bout past the point of the season where we are constantly reminded how only X% of teams make the playoffs when starting with X number of wins in X number of games. After back-to-back Super Bowl appearances the Chiefs have started out 2-3 after a pitiful performance against the Bills last night. This is nothing most teams would start to panic about but from what we have come to know about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs is that they do not lose many games. Since he has been a starter Tiktok star Jackson Mahomes’ big bro has only lost a max of 4 regular season games in a year. Typically, a good portion of their wins come from their twice a year matchup with fellow AFC West opponents who haven’t been good until recently. As of right now the Chiefs are the sole owner of last place in the division after hot starts from the Chargers, Raiders and Broncos. Only time will tell if this early season success continues but the Chargers look to be a top 5 team, luckily Las Vegas and Denver both seem to be cooling back down to their inconsistent selves which should give Kansas City hope.
I would say it is safe to assume the LA Chargers will finish with the top spot in that division and based on the rest of the schedule the Chiefs very likely can survive and make the playoffs still, as of right now the only tough match ups I can see in their upcoming games are the Packers (Week 9), Cowboys (Week 11), and the Chargers again (Week 15). With it being a 17-game season this year, a 6 loss team could very well be in danger of missing the cut. Barring any significant injuries or drop-offs, the Bills, Chargers, Ravens, Browns, Titans (due to the rest of the AFC South) and even the Bengals who’ve came out playing well are all well on their way to a playoff berth – leaving only one more spot left in the AFC which has a good chance to fall to the second place team in the west.
Now with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out for a few weeks as well, Andy Reid is going to rely even more heavily on the pass game which has been off to say the least. It seems like since the Ravens beat the Chiefs by clamping Tyreek Hill in week 2 the rest of the NFL has finally realized the secret to stopping KC. When they take away their ability to effortlessly call their touchdown play where they just tell Tyreek to run past the entire secondary and score, it throws the whole offense out of whack.
That being said, it should be noted, the defense is struggling bad and surely to blame for a majority of their early season woes. While the offense hardly scored 20 points last night, the defense has given up a league worse 32.6 ppg and a second worse 437 ypg to opposing teams. It’s going to be tough to win if you are allowing teams like the Eagles to drop 30 points and 460 yards.
If the Chiefs want to have any chance of making the playoffs, their season needs to turn around asap with a solid win over WFT next week, followed by the Titans and Giants. At the time I’m writing this, Vegas has the Chiefs as 6.5 point favorites. Any other season, this feels like a very hammer-able line Kansas City would crush without question. I will never understand how they get it so accurate and will always hate them for it, but you have to expect this game to come down to a 1 point difference that determines the spread hitting or not. With all this being said, I am sure I will find myself questioning everything this time next week.
Lock: Rams > Giants
Upset: Raiders > Broncos
Over: Chargers @ Ravens
Under: Bengals @ Lions