What to Look for in Week 11 of the NFL

So it turns out I am quite literally the worst sports bettor ever. I literally could not buy a win this last week. I even tested it at one point on Wednesday and bet the Knicks moneyline -650 to beat the Magic. Nope. This on top of Taylor Swift and Adele’s albums coming out tonight at midnight, just a sad, sad start to sad boy autumn. Seasonal depression is real though and don’t be afraid to talk to someone. Honestly, at this point, saying “it’s okay to not be okay” is played out and it feels more realistic to say “it’s not okay to be okay” because everyone is fucked up nowadays.

Also I procrastinated so I don’t have time for pictures in this post 😦 I vow to be better in the future.

Ravens @ Bears +5.5:
The Bears have a real chance this week. Lamar Jackson (illness) and Marquise Brown (thigh) are both out this week along with a few defensive starters as well for the Ravens. Is Lamar a pussy or are they just taking extra precautions even though it apparently isn’t covid? I feel like pre-pandemic, if a player was sick there was a good chance they were still going to suit up, this could have been his flu game. This changes everything though, Justin Fields and the Bears could take advantage of this opportunity to beat one of the best teams in the league.

Packers @ Vikings +1.5:
I fully expect this to be a gritty and tough game on both sides of this divisional matchup. The Packers are far better and their defense which has grown a lot throughout this season is looking amazing. If they get to Kirk Cousins just a couple of times quickly in the first half then the Vikings won’t be able to do much to penetrate and put up points. I see this game looking close in score the first 2 or 3 quarters and then by the end the Packers win by two scores.

Colts @ Bills -7:
For no reason whatsoever, I feel like the Colts might upset the Bills and win outright this game. Either that or the Bills dominate to show the rest of the league they are still those guys. 7 is a lot of points to cover though, and the Colts are definitely not a bad team so they can put up a close fight and cover the spread at least. A lot of this will depend on which Carson Wentz decides to show up. If he isn’t playing his best then the momentum fully will swing with Buffalo and Josh Allen can flip a switch and put up 40 on his own.

Lions @ Browns -11.5:
Tempted to take the Lions against the spread in this game. The Browns looked like they were frail the last couple of weeks and I don’t know but the Lions going off a tie that should be treated like a win could be dangerous. Brown’s HC Kevin Stefanski reported he expects Baker to be good to play this week. With how bad they played against the Patriots last week I imagine they know they had to have a good week of practice and take advantage of a bad Detroit team at home this week. They’re going to be motivated to be back to winning football and as big as 12 points are, I could see them covering. However, the official injury reports have Chubb activated from the Covid list and the Lions have made Jared Goff inactive meaning the worst team in the league’s backup QB Tim Boyle will be getting the start. It’s hard to play worse than Goff has though so that should give Detroit a little hope.

WFT @ Panthers -3:
Cam Newton is officially the starter for his return to Carolina against an injured Washington Football Team. Chase Young suffered a torn ACL last week and is now on IR the rest of the season. Montez Sweat is also out this week too so the defense is looking extra weak right now. On offense for Washington, Heinicke found a way to beat the Bucs last week so you can’t just dismiss that fact but I mean it’s hard to confidently bet on him to reliably cover any spread, hate to say it but it is what it is. McCaffrey looked very good last week too, almost like his old self so there is no reason this shouldn’t go heavily in favor of the Panthers.

Texans @ Titans -10.5:
Possibly the best team in the league is playing the absolute bottom of the barrel this week at home and the spread is only 10.5 points. Hammer the Titans this week and watch them beat the Texans by 25. The Texans actually have no hope for anything good to happen the rest of this season. And the Titans who have been missing multiple offensive weapons have remained extremely dominant and now get to have the luxury of an easy end to the regular season. This AFC South battle is going to be a steam rolling in Tennessee.

49ers @ Jaguars +6.5:
The 49ers looked like a very complete football team last week and are surely still feeling that high. Kyle Shanahan knows he saved his job too by not only winning but dominating the Rams last week. All this, plus the Jaguars are the fucking Jaguars. But, who knows? T-Law could have his breakout game against San Francisco who might think they have a bye week playing Jacksonville and then the Jags come out and punch them in the mouth. My prediction here is just for the Jaguars to cover and nothing more.

Dolphins @ Jets +3.5:
This game is disgusting and I hope no one has to sit through any amount of time of this on their screen. If they do put it on redzone at all though I hope they show how many fans are in the stands just to mock both teams. Part of me loves the Jets in this game, they are starting THE elite QB that is Joe Flacco. I don’t have very much to say, this is the weekly shit hole game that we all want to forget about.

Saints @ Eagles -2:
Road to the playoffs starts this week for Philly. The Saints with Trevor Siemien are not a great football team. However, the Eagles do not have one of the better run stopping defenses. Having said that, Alvin Kamara is officially ruled out for this week so Mark Ingram will get the touches in place of him and while that isn’t a horrible RB2 to have, MUCH more manageable for Philadelphia. Good news for them, Miles Sanders is being activated from IR this week after an ankle injury a few weeks ago. Devonta Smith and the Eagles offense looked awesome last week and I have talked myself into them carrying that momentum into the rest of the season.

Bengals @ Raiders +1:
This game reeks scrappy. Both teams have fallen off a bit over the last couple of weeks, the Bengals a bit further so I’m a bit confused as to why Vegas is an underdog. Joe Burrow looked just plain awful when he is deep in his own side of the field and doesn’t know how to get out of it without throwing a pick leading to a quick opponent score. I was fully in on Cincy when they pieced together a few big wins including a dominant win over Baltimore. I have since fully retreated on my Cincy playoffs take as well as all AFC North teams in the playoffs take. The Raiders on the other hand, reallllly shit the bed vs. the Chiefs on Monday and lost the lead in the AFC West. They have a good chance to tie up the standings this week though because both teams will be challenged.

Cowboys @ Chiefs -2.5:
Not sure why the Chiefs are favored in this game. The Cowboys are easily a top 3 team in the league right now. While Kansas City played really good last week, Mahomes didn’t look fully back and even if he was, the Cowboys genuinely just have the better team right now. Either way this has the potential to be one of the highest scoring games of the season with a lot of back and forth and should be very fun to watch. Unless the first half of the season Chiefs show up in which the Cowboys will win by 20.

Cardinals @ Seahawks +2.5:
Kyler Murray did return to practice and there were signs for him to be back in the lineup but as of this morning he is unlikely to play and Colt McCoy will be at the helm once again. However, they are playing a Seahawks team that just got assaulted by another top NFC team in Green Bay. Russ’ hand hopefully is better and they can put up a fight regardless of Kyler’s gametime status. The drastic difference in weather in Seattle compared to Arizona who plays in a dome likely won’t have a huge affect. Lastly, just found out Jamal Adams only has 3 career interceptions?!?!?! What the hell is he so outspoken for then??

Steelers @ Chargers -6.5:
The Steelers always play low scoring games on the road and the Chargers aren’t exactly the high powered offense we thought they were in the beginning of the season so under 47 could be a play. Big Ben is back though so they have that to go off of. Unfortunately, that’s about all the good news the Steelers have injury wise, TJ Watt, Joe Haden and Minkah Fitzpatrick are three of their defense’s best players who are all out this week. The Chargers are looking to get back in the win column and this Sunday Night Football game against an above average team would be huge for their season.

Giants @ Buccaneers -10.5:
Tom Brady has to be pissed as hell right now. As I mention in my Sunday Funday picks, he’s been 0-11 against the spread. These two facts conflict each other but I think the Bucs are without a doubt better through and through than the Giants, they just might not cover. 11 points is a lot to ask for to be fair. ML bet is a lock.

Byes: Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams

Sunday Funday:
I am just losing money at this point even when I try to play it safe. I will be trying that method again this week. I am also heavily basing a lot of my decisions of stats and trends throughout the league. I’m not sure how confident I am about this week yet, I’m sure I’ll live bet some games to try and make myself feel better about last week, anyways, here is my setup for this Sunday. Also, at this point I am going to be betting on the Eagles ML the rest of the season.
Go birds.

Lock: Packers @ Vikings +1.5
I was torn between this one or the Titans -10.5 because both the Packers and the Titans have been fantastic against the spread this season and are both at this moment the favorites to win their conferences. Packers >>> Vikings.
Upset: Giants @ Buccaneers -10.5
Tom Brady is 0-11 his last 11 games in primetime against the spread.
Over: Dolphins @ Jets O45
The Jets are 5-0 hitting the over in their last 5 games and they aren’t playing a great Dolphins team so whichever way this game goes I think they break 45.
Under: 49ers @ Jaguars U45.5
The Jaguars have gone under in 4 of their last 5 games and even though the 49ers had a great win on Monday night I don’t think however this game goes it will be particularly high scoring. Neither team has that type of firepower.

Last Weeks Bad Gambles: 2-2
Lock: Bucs -9.5 > WFT – FAT L
Upset: Chiefs < Raiders +2.5 – FAT L
Over: Browns @ Patriots O45.5 – W
Under: Falcons @ Cowboys U54.5 -W

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